South Orange County Blog from Bob Phillips

Scam Alert! 3 Mortgage Modification Scams to Watch out for (And How to Avoid Them)

Scam Alert! Three Mortgage Modification Scams to Watch out for (And How to Avoid Them)As if homeowners who are facing foreclosure don’t have enough to worry about, a multitude of loan modification scam artists have invaded the internet, public files and even foreclosure notices in newspapers in hopes of targeting their next victim. By identifying the top three modification scams and learning how to avoid them, at-risk homeowners can protect themselves (and their homes).

Never Pay For Mortgage Modification Assistance

Many desperate homeowners fall victim to scam artists who offer to provide them with assistance in the loan modification process for an exorbitant fee. Many times the scam artist who promises to provide assistance will require that the homeowner pay the fee upfront, after which they will provide very little assistance or simply take the money and run. Consumers should be aware that assistance and counseling services are offered for free through a number of reputable HUD approved counseling agencies.

Avoid Transferring The Deed

One popular scam that at-risk homeowners often face is the property deed scam in which scam artists promise to purchase the home in question, agreeing to let the desperate homeowner rent it out. They suggest that turning over the deed to a borrower with a better credit rating will offer additional financing opportunities, thus preventing the loss of the home. The scammer often promises to sell the home back to the homeowner, but in reality has no intention of doing so.

Many times the scam artist will sell the home to another buyer. In some instances, the crook will collect any processing fees, take the title to the home and any equity, and then leave the home to default. It is a good idea for consumers who are approached with a property deed scam to report it to the FTC.

Ignore Unrealistic Promises

Mortgage modification scammers often make promises to do such things as negotiate a solution to the foreclosure more quickly, process mortgage payments for the consumer while the negotiation is being worked out, or even guarantee a loan modification. Since the actual lender is the only one who can agree to a loan modification, and this solution requires additional processing time, overnight fixes are almost always scams. Additionally, consumers should never make mortgage payments to anyone other than their lender.

For additional information about mortgage modification scams and how to avoid them, or to receive assistance with working out a solution to avoid foreclosure, at-risk homeowners should contact someone with distressed property training and experience. In South Orange County, California, I am just such a person.

Comments Off

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – Aug 18, 2014

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week Aug 18 2014Last week’s economic news brought little housing-related content, but several economic reports in other sectors contributed to overall perceptions of the economy.

In a speech given in Sweden, Fed Vice President Stanley Fischer noted that the economy might be in a period of “secular stagnation.” This condition is expected to keep interest rates low for longer than expected.

A survey of small business owners showed that confidence increased by 0.70 in July. Job openings for June increased from 4.60 million to 4.70 million. Readings for several reports fell shy of expectations and new jobless claims were higher than expected.

Economic Readings Lower Than Expected, Weekly Jobless Claims Rise

Retail sales for July were flat and fell shy of June’s reading of 0.20 percent, which was also the expected reading for July. Retail sales except autos were also lower in July with a reading of 0.10 percent against the expected reading and June’s reading of 0.40 percent.

Weekly jobless claims were reported at 311,000 against expectations of 300,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 290,000 new jobless claims. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, this was the highest reading since June.

New jobless claims were close to pre-recession levels which suggested a slower pace of layoffs. The four-week average of new jobless claims, which presents a less volatile reading than for weekly reports, rose by 2000 new jobless claims to a reading of 285,750.

Mortgage Rates Lower

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey reported lower mortgage rates last week. Average rates were as follows: 30-year fixed rate mortgages had a rate of 4.12 percent and were two basis points lower than the previous week.

Discount points averaged 0.60 percent against the prior week’s reading of 0.70 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.24 percent as compared to the prior week’s reading of 3.27 percent. Discount points were unchanged at 0.60 percent.

The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped by one basis point to 2.97 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.50 percent.

A couple of good news bytes from last week included an increase in small business sentiment in July. The National Federation of Independent Business Index for July increased from June’s reading of 95.00 points to 95.70 points.

The federal government also reported that job openings increased from 4.60 million in May to 4.70 million in June.

What’s Ahead

Several housing-related reports are set for release this week. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) will release its Home Builder Index for August, which measures builder confidence in market conditions for newly built homes.

The Department of Commerce will release Housing Starts for July, and the National Association of REALTORS® will release its Existing Home Sales report for July. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its most recent meeting on Wednesday; this could provide details concerning the Fed’s recent monetary policy decisions, which include the wind-down of asset purchases under the current quantitative easing program.

Tagged with: , ,

Comments Off

New Formula Could Revamp Credit Scores Nationwide!

An article from Tory Barringer, of DSNews.com, August 8th, 2014:

credit-score-fico-improvementThe company responsible for one of the most widely used measures of credit health is making changes to its current model that could boost credit scores nationwide.

In an announcement on Thursday, analytics and decision management firm FICO said its new credit model, FICO Score 9, “introduces a more nuanced way to assess consumer collection information,” resulting in greater precision for lenders measuring a borrower’s credit stability. The model will be available to lenders through the country’s various reporting agencies starting in the fall.

“FICO Score 9 uses a more refined treatment of consumers with a limited credit history and those with accounts at collection agencies, so that lenders can grow their credit and loan portfolios more confidently,” said Jim Wehmann, EVP for Scores at FICO.

The key difference in the new model is that strikes from medical collections will have a lower impact, reflecting the relatively low level of credit risk they represent. From just that change, the company expects the median FICO score will increase by 25 points among consumers whose only credit dents come from unpaid medical debts.

FICO isn’t alone in its push to reassess how medical debts are reflected on a borrower’s credit profile. In May, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) released the results of a study finding that credit scores may underestimate creditworthiness by as much as 10 points for consumers owing on medical costs and by up to 22 points for consumers who have repaid their debt.

Often, consumers aren’t even aware their debt has been sent to collections, CFPB said.

Another change in the FICO Score 9 model is that it will also discount any overdue payments that have already been made, leaving only unpaid collections as a mark.

While the changes may have a significant impact on approval rates for credit cards and auto loans, the effects will be more subtle for borrowers and lenders in the mortgage space, says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for personal finance website Bankrate.com.

“These changes are going to be a positive for consumers, but it’s not something that moves the goalposts,” McBride said in a phone call. “These changes aren’t going to take a consumer with bad credit and suddenly make them appear as if they have good credit.”

Rather, for consumers whose credit scores sit on the threshold between poor, adequate, or good, the expected boost could make a difference in terms of required down payments or interest rates.

The Score 9 model also promises to help lenders make decisions on consumers with little to no credit history—though McBride doesn’t expect to see an immediate impact in mortgage approvals for credit-lacking millennials.

However, if those young consumers have an easier time securing lines on smaller loans, however, that could balloon out into the mortgage space in the future.

“You [have to] knock over the dominoes,” McBride said.

Experiencing ‘Purchase Anxiety’? How to Calm Your Nerves Before Committing to Buy a New Home

Experiencing 'Purchase Anxiety'? How to Calm Your Nerves Before Committing to Buy a New HomeWhether this is your first big purchase, or your family is moving to a new location or looking for more space, buying a home has its share of ups and downs.

It’s perfectly normal to feel anxious about whether or not you’ve found the right property. Here are some things you can do to make yourself feel more secure with your decision.

Do The Math

You’ve probably already done this, but it’s okay to go over it a number of times to be sure. Factor in your household income and all the bills you expect to pay every month. Add everything up.

It sounds like a stressful activity, but when you look at the numbers and realize that buying a home is actually doable, it can be a liberating feeling.

When you know for sure you can make it as a homeowner without getting underwater, you will feel more confident.

Meet The Neighbors

If you haven’t had the chance to knock on a couple of doors yet, you should spend some time saying hello to people in the neighborhood. The more you can get to talking with families that are just like yours, the more you will be able to picture yourself as a member of the community.

If you have kids, find out if there are other kids the same age nearby. That will help to ease their anxiety about moving as well.

Ask Your Agent

Don’t feel like you are being overly cautious if you ask your real estate agent and or mortgage professional your lingering questions. Make sure you’re getting a good price for the area, and make sure you know about any issues with the condition of the property.

You should be able to trust that your realtor and mortgage professional are excited for your decision.

Familiarize Yourself With The Neighborhood

Take a drive and figure out which stores you’re nearest to, the route you can take to get to work, and which other amenities you might take advantage of. Home buyers often underestimate how important living in a safe neighborhood with plenty of accessible businesses can be.

The more you can imagine yourself living at your new address, the better you will feel.

Remember, never sign the papers on a new home unless you feel one hundred percent secure in your buying decision.

Comments Off

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – Aug 11, 2014

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week Aug 11 2014

Last week’s housing related news was minimal, but a Federal Reserve survey of senior loan officers revealed that although credit standards for commercial and industrial loans as well as credit cards are easing, current mortgage credit standards are more stringent than in 2005. This could be a contributing factor to slowing housing market gains while other sectors of the economy are recovering at a faster pace.

Qualified Mortgage Rules Impact Non-Conforming Mortgages

The Senior Loan Officers survey also noted that qualified mortgage rules have slowed approval of prime jumbo mortgages and non-traditional home loans. This suggests that applicants falling outside of stringent qualified mortgage rules can expect challenges when buying or refinancing their homes.

In other housing news, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported that last week’s mortgage rates were mixed. Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.14 percent with discount points of 0.70 percent against last week’s reading of 4.12 percent with discount points of 0.60 percent. 15-year mortgage rates averaged 3.27 percent with discount points of 0.60 percent. This was an increase of four basis points, although discount points fell from 0.70 percent to 0.60 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was 2.98 percent, a drop of two basis points, with discount points unchanged at 0.50 percent.

Fewer Jobless Claims, Service-Related Business Growth Exceeds Expectations

The weekly Jobless Claims report brought a lower than expected reading of 289,000 new claims as compared to predictions of 305,000 new jobless claims. In other economic news, the Institute for Service Management (ISM) reported that its non-manufacturing index rose from June’s reading of 56.00 percent to 58.70 percent in July. Analysts had forecasted July’s reading at 56.50 percent. July’s reading represented the highest growth rate for service-related businesses since 2005.

According to the Department of Commerce, June factory orders rose by 1.10 percent over May’s reading of -0.60 percent against an expected reading of 0.60 percent. As business expands and factory orders increase, it’s likely that jobs and hiring will also grow. Steady employment is a compelling factor for most home buyers and positive reports in labor and industrial sectors could boost housing markets as more buyers increase demand for homes.

What’s Ahead

Next week’s economic reports include retail sales, retail sales excluding automotive, industrial production and the weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. While there isn’t much housing news expected next week, readings in other economic sectors can suggest potential trends in housing markets

Comments Off

Five facts impacting California’s housing future

An article by Brena Swanson, of HousingWire.com, August 7, 2014

CalifFive facts impacting California’s housing future

Next year is projected to be the best year yet for the economy since the start of the recovery, with California’s state economy lining up to do better than the nation. And this positive trend is expected to continue for the next two years, a new report from Beacon Economics said.

But HousingWire isn’t happy to stop with just that. Scroll down to see 5 facts on the future of California’s housing.

First, here are the results of the Beacon report:

California’s economy will continue to steadily improve throughout the life of the state forecast in 2019. Employment growth is expected to settle in at 2.5% by 2016, and the state’s unemployment rate is forecast to drop below 6% by mid 2017 – about half of what it was at its peak in October 2010 (12.4%).

“Every metropolitan area in California has now returned to job growth,” says Jordan Levine, Beacon Economics’ director of economics. “Although the jobs and broader economic recovery has been more robust in some areas of the state than in others, the overall numbers are indicative of real, sustained improvement statewide.”

However, one of the biggest problems facing California is the rapidly rising cost of housing, driven by a lack of new supply.

“You can’t add jobs if there is no growth in the labor force because people are leaving because they can’t afford housing,” says Thornberg.

But things look positive for the next couple of years since there is sufficient slack in the labor market to allow for solid growth.” ( End of report.)

Here are the five facts that play into California’s housing future: 

1. Home sales will rise!

First and foremost, home sales are set to rise in the Golden State! Although the rate of home sales needs some time to pick up, pick up it will. Home sales are estimated to continue on their upward trajectory over the next two years; however, the pace of growth will cool to the 4% to 6% range, a rate more in line with income growth. Home sales in California are forecast to rise by double-digit percentages in 2015. What’s more, the really, really pricey homes are already knocking it out of the park.

California

2. The state’s budget

The good news is that the state’s bottom line continues to heal, with the improvement trickling all the way to the financially strapped local governments as sales and property tax revenues rise across the state. According to Reuters, “California’s newest budget package of $152.3 billion in state spending emphasizes large increases for education, pays down debts, and proposes a 32-year plan to fully fund the teachers’ pension system.” That represents a three-decade investment that is a net positive for homeowners who must swallow the coming rise to their yearly tax bill, which averages close to three grand.

3. Tourists love it!

The state remains a top tourist destination as it keeps driving the economy forward with hotel occupancy at 73.4% statewide, 10 percentage points higher than the national average. According to TripAdvisor, there are precisely 12,246 things for tourists to do in California. That represents a robust and extensive opportunity for state and local economies that forever feeds financing to homeowners who work off the tourism trade.

California houses

4. The bad news

California faces a number of major structural challenges that keep the state’s economy from reaching its full potential, including hyper-cyclical budgeting, failure to address the state’s substantial long-term pension obligations, housing costs driven in significant part by abuse of the California Environmental Quality Act and a widening education gap relative to other states. And the state’s enduring drought will no doubt weigh on the agricultural sector, the main user of the state’s H2O.

5. And finally: jobs, jobs, jobs

Technological change will be a long-term challenge for California, and for all states. In commercial real estate, for example, traditional relationships between employment and commercial absorption are breaking down as more workers telecommute or work remotely. The job growth that used to propel new commercial construction activity is expected to have a smaller and smaller effect. And with more markets, such as North Texas, building larger tech sectors, skilled labor will continue to slowly bleed out of the state. Luckily, a surge in white collar jobs is helping to balance out this shift.

( End of Brena’s article.)

 

Orange County Housing Report: Bumping Along a Ceiling

aThe following is today’s Orange County Housing Report, from my local economist friend Steven Thomas.

Pushing the ceilingOrange County Housing Report: Bumping Along a Ceiling,  August 3, 2014

With the best time of the year to sell coming to a quick end, Orange County appreciation is coming  to an end. 

A Ceiling in Values: Sellers are learning the hard way that they can no longer arbitrarily set the price.

Buyers, sellers, REALTORS®, lenders, and everybody else involved within real estate know that there is a palpable difference in the 2014 real estate market. The number of homes fetching multiple offers is shrinking drastically. Homes are sitting on the market. The expected market time is on the rise. The active inventory has been growing all year and  just surpassed the 8,000 home mark, just a few hundred short of a long term county average.

The lesson for 2014 is that sellers cannot price their homes on a whim, on what they would like to walk away with from the sale of their home. 2012 and 2013 were completely different. In those years, values were skyrocketing. When that occurred, sellers were able to price their homes above recent sales. They dealt with multiple offers and often sold for more than their list prices. That simply is not the case anymore; yet, sellers continue to adopt that strategy and overprice their homes.

What changed? Values reached a level where buyers were no longer comfortable paying much more than the most recent sale. They wanted to pay what is “fair,” also known as the Fair Market Value. This explains why month to month appreciation has stalled. Unfortunately, news outlets across the country mainly report on year over year statistics; whereas, month to month statistics tell the real story. Orange County’s headlines highlighted a 10% increase in the median sales price year over year in June. Drill down a little bit deeper, when you remove new home sales, residential detached houses are up 6.6% and condominiums are only up 4.2%. That’s the difference in a year. Most important, month to month appreciation is flat.

With flat appreciation, the Orange County housing market is bumping along a value ceiling. And, the Autumn Market is right around the corner. Cyclically, housing cools a bit after the kids go back to school. It will cool further during the Holiday Market, from Thanksgiving through the first few weeks of the New Year.

When the market bounces along a value ceiling, occasionally there is a sale in a neighborhood that neighbors get really excited about and are lured to jump into the housing fray. Typically, they price above that sale in hopes that they can get more. They also add an additional amount leaving “room for negotiating.” Remember, this is a market where buyers do not want to pay too much for a home. So, the home sits on the market. Eventually, after one or two reductions, they arrive at or near the sales price of the home that motivated them to sell in the first place. Surprisingly, they still are unable to sell and just sit on the market longer. It could be condition, location, or upgrades, but often it is that buyers do not want to match the price of that most recent sale. After viewing similar properties, potential buyers feel that another buyer simply overpaid. That can still happen today, but just because one buyer is willing to stretch the value, the vast majority are not. The bottom line: when a home sits on the market even though it is priced at or near a recent closed sale, the price is too high.

As we bounce along a ceiling, sellers should price their homes realistically right from the start, taking into consideration the most recent sales, all pending sales, their condition, location, and upgrades. DO NOT PRICE BASED UPON OTHER LISTINGS; instead, know your competition, but price according to pending and closed sales. There are neighborhoods where every single home on the market is overpriced. In that case, instead of the lowest priced home selling, everybody will sit on the market with absolutely no success.

Active Inventory: The active inventory increased by 3% in the past two weeks and pushed past the 8,000 home mark.

8-3-14-active inventory-y-o-y

The active listing inventory added an additional 231 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 8,057. That’s the first time the inventory has been above 8,000 homes since January 2012, 2½ years ago. Thus far in 2014 the inventory has grown without pause, adding an additional 3,324, a 70% increase, and is poised to continue to increase through the end August. Keep in mind, in order for the active inventory to grow, more home need to be placed on the market than are coming off as pending sales.

Last year at this time there were 5,522 homes on the market, 2,535 fewer than today.

DemandDemand increased by 2% in the past two weeks.

8-3-14-demand

Demand, the number of new pending sales over the past month, increased by 48 now totals 2,549. After an initial small dip in demand in July, it will slightly rise in August. Last year at this time demand was at 2,707, 158 additional pending sales compared to today.

Distressed Breakdown: The distressed inventory increased by 5% in the past two weeks.

The distressed inventory, foreclosures and short sales combined, increased by 13 homes and now totals 294, its highest level since December of last year. The distressed inventory started the year at 271, so it really has not changed much. The long term trend is for it to remain at a very low level. Last month, they represented only 5% of all closed sales.

In the past two weeks, the number of active foreclosures increased by 2 homes and now totals 78. Only 1% of the active inventory is a foreclosure. The expected market time for foreclosures is 65 days. The short sale inventory increased by 11 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 216. The expected market time is 48 days and remains one of the hottest segments of the Orange County market. Short sales represent 3% of the total active inventory. ( End of Steven’s report.)

Comments Off

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – Aug 4, 2014

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week Aug 4 2014Last week’s economic news included a number of housing related reports. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, pending home sales dropped by 1.10 percent in June. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports for May noted that home prices are growing at a slower rate of 9.30 percent year-over-year than April’s year-over-year growth rate of 10.80 percent. Construction spending was also lower in June.

The Fed’s FOMC statement indicated that asset purchases connected to quantitative easing will cease in October, but that the current target federal funds rate is expected to stay in place “a considerable period” after asset purchases conclude. FOMC noted its concern over housing markets, which was based on slower home price growth and market activity.

Pending Home Sales, Home Price Growth Slower

Pending home sales dropped by 1.10 percent nationwide in June. This was the first decrease in four months. Pending home sales rose by 1.10 percent in the Midwest and 0.20 percent in the West, but dropped by 2.90 percent in the Northeast and 2.40 percent in the South. Pending sales are measured by signed purchase contracts and provide an indicator of future completed sales and mortgage loan activity.

The 20-city Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May fell by 1.50 percent to a year-over-year reading of 9.30 percent from April’s 10.80 percent. No cities in the 20-city index reported declining home prices.

Construction spending fell by 1.80 percent in June against projections of an 0.30 percent increase in spending and May’s reading of an 0.80 percent increase. Reasons cited for lower construction spending included builder focus on high-demand areas. Builders have also indicated concerns about rising mortgage rates and tight loan requirements that impact numbers of home buyers that can qualify for home loans.

Mortgage Rates Little Changed, Fed Continues Wind-Down of Asset Purchases

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates were little changed last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.12 percent as compared to 4.13 percent the prior week. Discount points were unchanged at an average of 0.60 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell by three basis points to 3.23 percent with discount points higher by 10 basis points at 0.70 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage fell by one basis point to 2.38 percent with average discount points of 0.40 percent unchanged.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve issued its customary post-meeting statement on Wednesday. The FOMC plans to continue reducing asset purchase under the current quantitative easing program until the purchases cease in October. Although some analysts were concerned that the Fed may consider raising its target federal funds rate based on lower than expected unemployment figures, the FOMC said it doesn’t plan to raise the target federal funds “for a considerable time” after the QE purchases cease, but no specific timeline was given.

Labor Sector News

The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Labor Statistics posted a national unemployment rate of 6.20 percent for July, which was higher than expectations of a 6.00 percent national unemployment rate and June’s reading of 6.10 percent. To put these readings in perspective, the Fed had established an unemployment rate of 6.50 percent as a benchmark for winding down its asset purchases and potentially raising the target federal funds rate.

Non-farm payrolls reported 209,000 jobs added in July against projections of 235,000 jobs added and June’s reading of 298,000 jobs added. While July’s reading was lower, analysts said that job growth suggests ongoing recovery for labor markets. Labor markets have been cited in recent months as reasons for slower demand for homes and home builder skepticism.

Next week’s scheduled economic news contains no housing-related reports other than Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates report.

Comments Off

Million-dollar home sales hit seven-year high in California

An article by Tim Logan, of the L.A. Times, 7/31/2014

stone-tuscanThe number of homes that sold for $1 million or more in California hit a seven-year high in the second quarter, and sales north of $2 million reached a new record.

That’s according to new figures from San Diego-based DataQuick, which tracks local housing markets in the state. They found million-dollar-plus sales grew at a 9.1% clip statewide compared with last year, while sales overall fell 7.4%.

Several factors are driving the high-end liftoff, market-watchers say.

One is the hot technology sector in the Bay Area and some affluent parts of Southern California, which is minting new millionaires who can afford seven-figure homes. Another is the 11.6% price growth in California over the last year, which means a house worth $925,000 last summer may be worth $1,032,300 today. And there’s the influx of international buyers, which is pushing up prices at the high end.

Then there’s that old saw that the rich are just different than you and me, especially in a time when credit is tight and the job market remains soft for many middle-income home buyers.

“It’s always fascinating to watch this part of the real estate market. It behaves differently, responds to its own set of criteria,” said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage. “These buyers, especially those in the multi-million-dollar market, are less likely to agonize over credit scores, income and job security, down payments and mortgage interest rates.”

Of course, in the most desirable parts of coastal California, a million-dollar home is rather routine. Half of all homes sold in San Francisco County in June exceeded $1 million, according to DataQuick, and parts of Los Angeles and Orange counties regularly cross into seven figures.

The market for even higher-priced homes is even hotter. While there were more million-dollar homes being sold here in the mid-2000s than today, California in the second quarter set all-time records for the number of homes sold for more than $2 million, more than $3 million, more than $4 million and more than $5 million.

Comments Off

Altos: Critics wrong about housing, it’s going to soar in 2015!

An interesting new article from Jacob Gaffney, of HousingWire.com, dated July 29, 2014:

HotAirBalloonWith so many fists beating on the housing-is-facing-ruin door, Altos Research is set to release data that claims all that pounding is in vain.

Clients will begin receiving a report Wednesday afternoon, but HousingWire was able to get a sneak peek, and the results say that housing recovery critics are wrong about housing. According to Altos, it’s going to soar in 2015.

“While we see signs of demand easing, we are significantly more bullish on housing than many of the recent headlines seem to suggest,” said Altos CEO Michael Simonsen. “Based on our models, we’re forecasting another year of home price appreciation, with a 7% home price increase for the year of 2015.”

Single-digit appreciation is a remarkable prediction. Many other experts anticipate depreciation in   the nation’s housing market, so the Altos call is relatively noteworthy.

What’s driving the negative stand most of the market holds? The media is partially to blame, the report states.

Bearish Headlines, Bullish Reality

In the section titled, “Bearish Headlines, Bullish Reality,” the researchers state their case this way:

“In our view, these attitudes reflect a myopic view of actual market conditions and conflate concerns over the mortgage industry, the otherwise-constrained new construction market, and more broadly, the long-term financial stability of the U.S. consumer with specific current housing market supply and demand dynamics. While these are valid long-run concerns, the variables impacting home prices have proven to be driven by low available supply and growing household formation.”

So what is the main driver for the Altos view that prices will rise 7%? Altos expects inventory to climb another 10%.

“As inventory and transactions rise along with pricing, participants in the housing market stand to benefit broadly,” they write. Furthermore, the number of days on market remains low compared to before the housing bust, indicating a seller’s market.

In a seller’s market, sellers can list homes at a higher value, hoping a buyer takes the bait. If not, they can also bring down the price closer to market value, while appearing to offer a sales compromise to the buyer.

Altos estimates that approximately 35% of properties will take such a price cut. Altos sees this as an indicator of strong competition, despite weaker demand overall.

The nation’s housing market, they note, continues to require a more nuanced view of its future.

“Home prices across the U.S. are poised for a fifth consecutive year of recovery. The market is still faced with low inventory and demand, buoyed by an expanding economy, which, among other factors, remains healthy,” the report concludes. “Both supply and demand conditions are moving from extreme bullish conditions to healthy condition.”

Comments Off

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: