Consider this a last call for FHA Streamline Refinances.  Starting next Tuesday, the popular rate-lowering program gets strict on borrowers.

There’s 5 days left.

Under the current streamline refi guidelines, FHA homeowners have minimal program eligibility requirements.

• FICO scores must be 620 or higher
  
• The refinance must provide a “tangible benefit”
  
• No mortgage lates allowed in the last 12 months

Beyond that, everything else goes, practically.  There’s no income, asset, or job verification with the current FHA Streamline program. Neither is there an appraisal requirement.  It doesn’t matter if you’re 50% underwater.

Until next week, that is. 

Beginning November 17, FHA Streamline Refinance applicants must show evidence of income and employment, plus proof of cash required to close. Furthermore, the FHA is limited loan-to-values to 97.75% for homeowners that want to “roll closing costs” into their mortgage.

In areas of declining home values, this may render refinancing impossible.

There’s more changes, too, as highlighted by the Federal Housing Commissioner. Read up for yourself, or ask a mortgage professional for help.

If you’re a homeowner and you’re currently financed through the FHA, it may be prudent to explore the possibility of an FHA Streamline Refi.  Mortgage rates are low right now and FHA guidelines are loose.

Starting next week, FHA Streamlines will be a completely different beast.

Mortgage markets were extremely volatile last week, carving out a wide range between Monday and Friday. 

Thankfully for rate shoppers, the overall momentum was positive.

Mortgage rates fell for the second time in as many weeks. Rates still sit higher versus their early-October lows.

For pure “news”, last week was a busy one:

• The Federal Reserve held the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent
  
• The Unemployment Rate crossed 10 percent
  
• The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit was extended to April 2010

Combined, the 3 events reinforced the growing belief on Wall Street that the U.S. economy is in recovery, but not yet out of the woods.  This particular philosophy has been excellent for mortgage rates, helping to hold conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates near 5.250 percent since the start of the year. 

It helped rates last week, too.  But low rates aren’t without threats. 

For one, the Fed’s vote to hold the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent will eventually spark inflation concerns.  When it does, mortgage rates will rise. That won’t be this week, though.

Actually, nothing may happen this week — there’s not much data to release.  Apart from a retail report, a confidence survey and some Fed speakers, the calendar is bare.  That, and Wednesday is a federal holiday.

However, without data, markets often trade on things like geopolitics, or energy concerns, or momentum.  In other words, don’t be lulled into thinking rates won’t change this week.

At least for now, the mortgage rates look good. By the end of the week, that may not be the case.

Congress both extended and expanded the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program Thursday. 

The White House says the President will sign it into law today.

The up-to-$8000 tax credit’s expiration date has been pushed forward to spring, requiring homebuyers to be under contract by April 30, 2010, and to be closed by June 30, 2010.

The program’s basic eligibility requirements remain the same:

• Buyers can’t purchase the home from a parent, spouse, or child
  
• Buyers can’t purchase the home from an entity in which they’re a majority owner
  
• Buyers can’t acquire the home by gift or inheritance
  
• All parties to the purchase must meet eligibility requirements

The new law includes some notable updates, however. 

For one, the definition of “first-time home buyer” has been expanded to include most homeowners with at least 5 years in their current home.  “Move-up” buyers like these are now eligible for IRS tax credits, but with a cap at $6,500.

This means that you don’t have to be a true first-time home buyer to claim the “first-time home buyer tax credit”.

Other eligibility changes include:

• The subject property’s sales price may not exceed $800,000
  
• The subject property must be a primary residence
  
• Income thresholds raised to $125,000 for single-filers and $225,500 for joint-filer

And remember, the First-Time Home Buyer program grants a tax credit as opposed to a deduction.  This means that a tax filer would receive a cash payment of $2,000 from the U.S. Treasury if his “normal” tax liability totals $6,000 and he was eligible for all $8,000 available under the new law.

The complete list of qualifying criteria is posted on the IRS website.  Be sure to review it with a tax professional to determine your eligibility.  Then mark your calendar for April 30, 2009.

It’s 5 months away.

The Federal Open Market Committee caps off a scheduled, 2-day meeting today in the nation’s capital, its 8th meeting of the year.

The group adjourns at 2:15 PM ET and, as is customary, will issue a press release reviewing its monetary policy and the health of the U.S. economy. 

The FOMC’s post-meeting statements are brief but comprehensive. They’re a window into the mind of the Federal Reserve and Wall Street picks apart every sentence for clues.

It’s why FOMC meetings tend to shake up the mortgage markets — for good and for bad. 

After its September 2009 meeting, the FOMC said in its press release:

1. Financial markets have improved
   
2. Housing activity has increased
   
3. Economic activity has “picked up”

Since September, the momentum has picked up.  Credit risks have reduced further, home sales are surging, and, although unemployment remains high, the Fed remains optimistic about a full economic recovery.

Today’s FOMC press release will be closely watched. If the Fed alludes to strong growth with inflation in 2010, mortgage rates should rise. Reference to slower growth should help keep rates steady.

The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent — the lowest it’s been in history.  However, it’s what the Fed says Wednesday that will matter more than what it does.

If you’re floating a mortgage rate or wondering if the time is right to lock, the safe approach is to lock prior to 2:15 PM ET Wednesday.

The housing market continues to steam forward.

As reported by the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index posted its 8th consecutive monthly gain in September.

It’s the longest winning streak in the history of the index and Pending Home Sales are now at their highest levels since December 2006.

A Pending Home Sale is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.  It’s the precursor to an Existing Home Sale. 

Trade group data shows that nearly 80 percent of “pending” homes close within 2 months.  The majority of those remaining close within months 3 and 4.

When the Pending Home Sales Index rises, it tells us that market activity has picked up.  September’s data confirms what we’ve been noticing since February — the Buyers Market is ending.

With more homes under contract in the marketplace, homebuyers typically face one or more of the following:

   1. Competitive, multiple-offer situations
   2. Reduced purchase price leverage over sellers
   3. Fewer seller concessions

Therefore, if you’re buying a home in the next several months, know that the 8-month run in Pending Sales will lead to a run in closed sales.  It should result in higher home prices, too

Indeed, we’re already seeing it.

Mortgage markets improved last week after a series of hugely volatile trading sessions. 

Rates carved out a wide range on the week, culminating in a late-Friday plunge that dropped rates by about 1/8 percent.

It was the first time in 5 weeks that mortgage rates fell.

Volatility like that of last week is nothing new on Wall Street; it’s been a running theme in 2009.  Volatility occurs when markets don’t agree on what’s next for the economy and, this year, there’s been a lot of disagreement like that.

Data has been inconsistent.  Take last week for example.

At 9:00 AM Tuesday morning, the Case-Shiller Index showed home prices rising nationwide.  Because many analysts believe housing fueled the recession, strength in the sector is widely construed a positive for the economy.

Mortgage rates rose on the news.

But then, an hour later, the national consumer confidence report revealed a substantial deterioration in sentiment versus the month prior.  The data forced Wall Street to do an about-face.

Housing is important to the economy, but it can’t affect growth like consumer spending can. When Americans are less confident about their future income, they tend to keep their wallets closed, retarding economic growth.

Holiday Shopping Season is getting underway and the last thing businesses want to see is a suddenly reserved American shopper.

This week, the volatility should continue. 

In addition to the release of key employment and housing data, the Federal Open Market Committee has a scheduled 2-day meeting.  The group’s Wednesday afternoon adjournment will influence mortgage rates.

The Fed is widely expected to keep the Fed Funds Rate in its target range near 0.000 percent, but it won’t be what the Fed does that will matter as much as what the Fed says.

If the FOMC’s press release shows optimism for the economy, mortgage rates will rise in response.  Alternatively, if the Fed appears more dour, rates will fall. 

Either way, consider locking your rate before the Wednesday afternoon announcement.

This is an article by Jeff Collins, in this morning’s Orange County Register:

Home-data firm First American CoreLogic predicts that Orange County house prices will be up 9.5% next August from this past summer.

If accurate, the median price of an Orange County house would increase by nearly $48,000 from the $500,000 median reported by DataQuick in August and September.

Those price gains would outstrip appreciation rates for the nation’s 10 largest metro areas, First American reported. For example, Los Angeles County is forecast to see home prices rise 6.3%, the highest rate among the big 10. That’s followed by Miami-Dade County’s projected 6.1% gain.

First American projected that California’s house prices will increase 7.9% by August, while nationwide prices will go up 4.6%. First American expects U.S. home prices to hit bottom in March.

First American’s forecast is just the latest in the past five weeks. Among the others:

• The UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted that O.C. home prices will go up between 15.9% and 16.6% in 2010, following by increases of 2.5% to 8.7% from 2011 to 2015. The median price isn’t expected to reach the boom-time peak of $626,000 until 2016 or 2017.
  
• Anil Puri, dean of Cal State Fullerton’s Mihaylo College of Business and Economics, predicted that O.C. home prices will fall through the first half of 2010, and then either stay flat or rise by 2% to 3% at the most.
  
• Economist Mark Schniepp — author of UCLA’s Orange County forecast — projected that home values in Ventura, Santa Barbara, Orange, and San Diego counties would return to 2004 levels by mid-2012, a gain of approximately 30%.
  
• California Association of Realtors Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young forecast that California home prices will rise 3.3% next year, driven by sales of distressed homes.
  
• Veros, specialists in automated real estate valuations, said their housing model shows Orange County housing values for their benchmark “single-family residential mid-price tier properties” rising 2% in the year ended Sept. 1, 2010.

First American’s Home Price Index showed that Orange County house prices fell 7.9% in August, its most recent data. Prices for non-distressed homes only — which excludes bank-owned houses and short sales (where prices are below debt) — had dropped by a slightly smaller margin: 7.1%.

Here’s a sampling of what we’ve covered in recent weeks:

• UCLA sees 16% O.C. home-price gain in 2010
  
• CSU Fullerton sees tiny O.C. home-price gain in 2010
  
• First American says Calif. house prices projected to jump 7.9%
  
• O.C. housing recovery more rapid than expected, UCI prof says
  
• Calif. home prices forecast by Realtors to rise 3.3%
  
• Veros: O.C. house prices seen rising 2% in a year

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Some days, newspaper headlines are a terrible place to get your real estate news. 

Today is one of those days.

After the September New Home Sales report showed sales volume down from August, the mainstream media jumped on the story:

• New Home Sales fall a surprising 3.6%
  
• Surprise Drop In New Home Sales
  
• Stocks slide as New Home Sales fall

But the headlines miss the point, somewhat.  Yes, home sales volume is important to housing, but it’s not as important as home supply.

A deeper look at the New Home Sales data reveals an interesting comparison point:

• New home sales volume fell 3.6%
  
• The number of new homes available for sale fell 3.8%

In other words, sales outpaced supply — a running theme this year and a positive signal for housing.

Since peaking in January 2009, the supply of newly-built homes has now dropped by 40 percent.  The average sale price is up 15% over the same period.

This is why you can’t get your real estate news from the headlines.  You have to dig a little bit deeper to get the real story.

September’s New Home Sales report was plenty strong.  The housing market recovery continues.

The national housing supply fell to a 2-year low last month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

At the current sales pace, existing home inventories would sell out in 7.8 months — 30 percent faster versus November 2008.

For a 10-month window, that’s a major housing supply reduction and it helps to explain why multiple-offer situations have been so common lately.

Moreover, the same report from NAR showed sales activity reaching its highest point since July 2007, too.

If you’re looking for evidence that the long-standing Buyers Market is ending, this month’s Existing Home Sales report might be it.

Even median sales prices — typically dragged lower by distressed and foreclosed properties — declined at its slowest pace in a year.  The market may have turned a corner.

Home prices are rooted in the basic economics of supply and demand.

• When supply outweighs demand, home prices fall
  
• When supply lags demand, home price rise

Since March 2009, the market has been moving in the right direction.  Low mortgage rates, ample housing supply and a first-time home buyer tax credit fueled buy-side demand so that home prices are now rising in many U.S. markets.

Of course we already knew all this in Orange County, California. We have been experiencing multiple offers as commonplace, in the lower price ranges, since February.

If home supplies stay on this path into 2010, expect home prices to rise even more.

For August, the Case-Shiller Index showed annual home values improving across 19 of 20 U.S. markets. It’s the first time in 3-plus years that the benchmark housing index has shown such strength.

According to a Case-Shiller Index spokesperson, “The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to improve.”

It’s yet another sign that housing may have already bottomed.

However, just because the Case-Shiller Index shows a stabilization in home values, that doesn’t necessarily make it true. This is because real estate happens on the local level and the Case-Shiller Index is more “national”. It tracks data in just 20 U.S. cities.

Homeowners everywhere else are unaccounted for.

Furthermore, even within the 20 tracked Case-Shiller markets, there’s no allowance for the natural sub-markets that exist. Some neighborhoods under-perform and some neighborhoods out-perform.

Case-Shiller treats them all the same.

Despite its imperfections, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains a helpful, broader measurement of U.S. real estate. Economists believe that housing led the U.S. into the recession and they believe housing will lead us out, too.

If that’s true, August’s Case-Shiller data is another step in the right direction.