South Orange County Blog from Bob Phillips

The Mortgage Crisis Created Nearly 7.3 Million Potential Boomerang Buyers

Posted in Uncategorized by southorangecounty on January 28, 2015

Here’s a recent article from Colin Robertson of TheTruthAboutMortgage.com

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The Mortgage Crisis Created Nearly 7.3 Million Potential Boomerang Buyers

It has now been roughly seven years since the devastating housing crisis rocked our great nation.

Between 2007 and 2014, foreclosure activity ran well above historical norms after exotic lending and sky-high home prices eventually brought down the entire real estate market.

But the foreclosure rate has since fallen to pre-crisis levels as problem loans were dealt with in one way or another. For  some, a loan modification has meant a second chance to erase past mistakes.

For many others, the outcome wasn’t as positive. Their homes were lost via short sale or foreclosure and they must start anew. Of course, this may have been deliberate in some cases thanks to a phenomenon known as strategic default.

Regardless, many of those who lost their homes will now be able to get another crack at homeownership over the next several years. These folks are known as “boomerang buyers,” and are primarily Gen Xers or Baby Boomers.

Why Now?

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Well, foreclosure waiting periods enforced by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and so on generally bar previously foreclosed homeowners from obtaining mortgages for seven years. For short sales, the wait is only two to four years in many cases.

Yes, there are exceptions to the rule that shorten these windows, and even programs that allow for mortgages just one year after such a negative event (or even one day!). There are also those who can buy a home with cash.

But generally it takes a considerable amount of time to bounce back and improve your credit history, regardless of the rules that are in place.

Seeing that it’s now 2015, the potential pool of boomerang buyers is growing in numbers.

A new analysis from RealtyTrac reveals that some 551,000 individuals will be able to buy a property again this year, assuming they still favor homeownership.

The number of boomerang buyers is expected to rise year after year until 2018 when the number peaks at over 1.3 million, then slowly decline through 2022, just as foreclosure rates have done.

This means the housing market might get an unexpected boost in demand at a time when supply is still low. Hello higher home prices?

Where Are All These Boomerang Buyers?

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As you might expect, the areas hit hardest by the crisis should have the largest number of potential boomerang buyers.

That explains why Phoenix, Arizona leads the nation with nearly 350,000, followed by Miami with 322,000 and Detroit and Chicago each with over 300,000.

The largest share of potential boomerang buyers (as a percentage of total housing units) can be found in former foreclosure hotbeds such as Las Vegas, Merced, Stockton, Cape Coral-Fort Meyers, and Modesto.

Of course, in order for a potential boomerang buyer to become an actual homeowner the conditions need to be just right, kind of like conditions here on Earth.

RealtyTrac notes that the “trifecta of market conditions” includes an area where a high percentage of homes were lost to foreclosure, where home prices are still within reach to median income earners, and where the population of Gen Xers and Baby Boomers has held steady or increased.

The company found 22 metros (with a population of at least 250,000) meeting these criteria. The top five are Las Vegas, Tampa, Orlando, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, and Charlotte.

Phoenix wasn’t on the list because it’s Gen X/Baby Boomer population fell by 2.64% from 2007 to 2013. Miami isn’t ideal either because its housing payment to income ratio is over 28%.

In any case, the toughest part will be convincing these individuals to buy again seeing that home prices are already back near peak levels.

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Three iPhone and Android Apps That Make Managing Your Mortgage Payments Quick and Easy

Three iPhone and Android Apps That Make Managing Your Mortgage Payments Quick and EasyYour mortgage payment may be among the largest payments you make every month. While certainly an important part of your budget, this payment is also critical to helping you build equity in your home because it attributes to mortgage principal reduction. Managing your mortgage payments can be challenging, but there are some incredible apps available for use with Android or iPhone smartphones that can simplify your mortgage management tasks.

Mortgage Mentor

This app is available for both iPhones and Android devices, and is designed to be compatible with all types of mortgages. It can calculate PMI for adjustable rate and variable rate mortgages, and it can help you to determine the true cost of a mortgage. Through the use of this intelligent app, you can track your account information in real-time, or you can manipulate the numbers to help you to make more thoughtful and intelligent decisions about your finances.

Loan Calculator Pro

This app is only currently available on iOS devices, but those with this operating system may want to download it today. It has some of the same capabilities as Mortgage Mentor, but it goes a step above and beyond by providing you with mortgage payment notification reminders. It also has a unique feature that allows you to set a final payoff date for your mortgage, and it will calculate how much money you need to pay per month toward your mortgage to accomplish this goal.

Bill Payment Log

The Bill Payment Log app is a unique program that can entirely replace the outdated manual entry checkbook balancing task. It is suitable for use with iOS, Android and even Windows. You can use it to monitor and track payments for all credit accounts, including mortgages. While it does not have the analytical tools associated with some of the other mortgage apps, those who are looking for an all-in-one app that facilitates bill payment tasks for all accounts, this may be a great option to consider.

Making your mortgage payments on time is important, but you also may need to know if you need to pay extra each month and what the effects of that will be. You may also be concerned about “what if” scenarios for your adjustable rate mortgage. There are numerous apps available on the market today that can help you to facilitate your efforts, and these are among the leading choices available.

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Three Tips for Reducing Your Closing Costs if You’re Looking Forward To Buying a Home in the Spring

Three Tips for Reducing Your Closing Costs if You're Buying a Home in the Spring Spring is approaching fast and it is usually the busiest time of the year for home buying. After a long and cold winter, many people are ready to enjoy the nicer weather and begin to shop for a new home. Spring is also the perfect time for home buying for families with children because it allows them to move during the summer without interrupting school.

Home buying has costs associated with it other than the mortgage itself. Known as closing costs, these fees are a part of the home buying process and they are due at the time that the mortgage is finalized. Buyers, however, can negotiate these costs and reduce the expense with a little bit of effort and with the help of a good mortgage professional.

If you are thinking of buying a new home in the spring here are three helpful tips to reducing your closing costs.

Compare All of Your Mortgage Options

If you’re using mortgage financing to cover some of the up-front purchase cost of your home you’ll have other closing costs to pay including lender fees, mortgage insurance and more. Be sure to compare all of your options with your trusted mortgage adviser to ensure that you’re getting the best possible deal and paying the least amount in fees and interest.

You may also be able to save a bit on your closing costs by choosing a “no points” mortgage. In this type of mortgage you’ll end up saving on closing costs but you’ll be left paying a higher interest rate. Spend a bit of time doing the math to determine the best course of action.

Third Party Fees

Some of the closing cost fees will be associated with third party vendors that must perform required services. Home appraisals, title searches, and costs for obtaining credit reports are some of the items included in this area. While these may be a little harder to negotiate because the lender uses specific companies to perform these services, it does not hurt to ask if you can use your own appraiser or title search company.

Zero Closing Cost Mortgages

Buyers may also wish to inquire about a no closing cost mortgage. This type of mortgage eliminates all closing costs. The lender covers all of the closing cost fees in exchange for a slightly higher interest rate on the loan. In most cases the increase is less than one-quarter of a percent. This type of loan can be very helpful to buyers. Buyers can then use the money that they saved on closing costs to help with the move.

With a little preparation, you can find the best mortgage product for the up-coming spring season. Be sure to contact your experienced mortgage professional, as they will be able to help you find the right mortgage for your specific needs with the lowest out-of-pocket expenses.

Compare All of Your Mortgage OptionsIf you’re using mortgage financing to cover some of the up-front purchase cost of your home you’ll have other closing costs to pay including lender fees, mortgage insurance and more. Be sure to compare all of your options with your trusted mortgage advisor to ensure that you’re getting the best possible deal and paying the least amount in fees and interest.

You may also be able to save a bit on your closing costs by choosing a “no points” mortgage. In this type of mortgage you’ll end up saving on closing costs but you’ll be left paying a higher interest rate. Spend a bit of time doing the math to determine the best course of action.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 5, 2015

Whats-Ahead-Template-252Case-Shiller reported that home prices hit their lowest pace in two years. According to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for October, home prices fell in 10 cities, rose in eight cities and were unchanged in two cities.

In other news, pending home sales increased and weekly jobless claims rose. The details:

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Lowest in Two Years

According to its 20-City Home Price Index, Case-Shiller said that home prices dropped by 0.10 percent to a reading of 4.50 percent year-over-year as compared to September’s reading of 4.80 percent year-over-year. Analysts expected home price growth to drop to 4.70 percent in October.

David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that 2014 could finish on a strong note with price growth accelerating in 2015. Home price growth hasn’t hit double digits since April, but there is encouraging news on the horizon.

More than half of states’ average home prices are set to surpass housing bubble peaks in 2015. Through October, home prices were approximately 15 percent below a 2006 peak. Higher inventories of available homes and lower mortgage rates are seen as stabilizing influences on housing markets, and could also encourage more buyers into the market.

Pending Home Sales Up, Mortgage Rates Mixed

The National Association of Realtors® reported that November pending home sales rose to a reading of 0.80 percent from October’s reading of -1.10 percent. The seasonally-adjusted index reading for November was 104.8.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist noted that steady economic growth and hiring contributed to home buyer confidence. Regional readings for pending home sales were +1.40 percent in the Northeast, +1.30 percent in the South and +0.40 percent in the South. Pending home sales declined by -0.40 percent in the Midwest.

Fixed mortgage rates rose last week. Freddie Mac reported that average rates for 30-year and 15-year mortgages rose to 3.87 percent and 3.15 percent respectively; the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged at 3.01 percent.

Discount points for all types of mortgages were unchanged at 0.60 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Jobless Claims Up

Weekly jobless claims rose to 298,000 new claims against expectations of 290,000 new claims and 281,000 new claims filed the previous week. This was the highest reading since Thanksgiving.

Analysts said that seasonal hiring fluctuations and the volatility of week-to-week claims cause weekly reports to be less reliable than the four-week rolling average of jobless claims, which fell by 250 claims to a reading of 290,750.

Continuing claims fell by 53,000 to a reading of 2.35 million in the week ending December 20. This reading was close to a 14 year low.

Overall, analysts viewed stronger labor markets and economic growth as positive signs for 2015.

What’s Ahead

Next week will resume a full schedule of economic events including construction spending, ADP employment, Non-Farm Payrolls and the national unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

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From RealtyTrac: Buying is more affordable than renting almost everywhere

A new blog from Trey Garrison of HousingWire.com, dated December 26th, 2014.

From RealtyTrac: Buying is more affordable than renting almost everywhere

rent-versus-buy“Buying is still more affordable than renting in the majority of U.S. housing markets, while the opposite is true in markets with the biggest increase in the millennial share of the population over the last six years, according to RealtyTrac.

RealtyTrac analyzed 2015 fair market rental data recently released by the U.S. Department for Housing and Urban Development for three-bedroom properties in 543 counties nationwide with a population of at least 100,000. In the 473 counties with sufficient rental and home price data, the fair market rent for a three-bedroom property in 2015 will require an average of 27% of median household income, while buying a median-priced home requires an average of 25% of median household income based on the median sales price in November.

Buying a median-priced home was more affordable than renting a three-bedroom property in 68% of the counties analyzed, representing 57% of the total population in those counties.

But in the 25 counties with the biggest increase in millennials between 2007 and 2013, fair market rents for a three-bedroom property in 2015 will require 30% of the median household income on average while buying a median-priced home requires 36% of median household income on average. For the analysis millennials were defined as anyone born between 1977 and 1992.

“First-time buyers and potential boomerang homebuyers are stuck between a rock and a hard place in today’s housing market: many of the markets with the jobs and amenities they want have hard-to-afford rents and even harder-to-afford home prices; while the more affordable markets have fewer well-paying jobs and tend to be off the beaten path,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “Those emerging markets with the combination of good jobs, good affordability and a growing population of new renters and potential first-time homebuyers represent the best opportunities for buy-and-hold real estate investors to buy low and benefit from rising rents in the years to come.”

The top markets with the biggest increase in the percentage of millennials over the past seven years were counties in Washington, D.C., San Francisco and Denver, all of which saw an increase of more than 50% in the share of the population that is millennials.

Other markets in the top 25 for biggest increase in millennials included counties in New York, Nashville, Portland, St. Louis, Seattle, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Orlando, Austin, Des Moines and Midland, Texas.” ( End of Trey’s blog.)

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