Here’s a recent article from Colin Robertson of TheTruthAboutMortgage.com
The Mortgage Crisis Created Nearly 7.3 Million Potential Boomerang Buyers
It has now been roughly seven years since the devastating housing crisis rocked our great nation.
Between 2007 and 2014, foreclosure activity ran well above historical norms after exotic lending and sky-high home prices eventually brought down the entire real estate market.
But the foreclosure rate has since fallen to pre-crisis levels as problem loans were dealt with in one way or another. For some, a loan modification has meant a second chance to erase past mistakes.
For many others, the outcome wasn’t as positive. Their homes were lost via short sale or foreclosure and they must start anew. Of course, this may have been deliberate in some cases thanks to a phenomenon known as strategic default.
Regardless, many of those who lost their homes will now be able to get another crack at homeownership over the next several years. These folks are known as “boomerang buyers,” and are primarily Gen Xers or Baby Boomers.
Well, foreclosure waiting periods enforced by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and so on generally bar previously foreclosed homeowners from obtaining mortgages for seven years. For short sales, the wait is only two to four years in many cases.
Yes, there are exceptions to the rule that shorten these windows, and even programs that allow for mortgages just one year after such a negative event (or even one day!). There are also those who can buy a home with cash.
But generally it takes a considerable amount of time to bounce back and improve your credit history, regardless of the rules that are in place.
Seeing that it’s now 2015, the potential pool of boomerang buyers is growing in numbers.
A new analysis from RealtyTrac reveals that some 551,000 individuals will be able to buy a property again this year, assuming they still favor homeownership.
The number of boomerang buyers is expected to rise year after year until 2018 when the number peaks at over 1.3 million, then slowly decline through 2022, just as foreclosure rates have done.
This means the housing market might get an unexpected boost in demand at a time when supply is still low. Hello higher home prices?
Where Are All These Boomerang Buyers?
As you might expect, the areas hit hardest by the crisis should have the largest number of potential boomerang buyers.
That explains why Phoenix, Arizona leads the nation with nearly 350,000, followed by Miami with 322,000 and Detroit and Chicago each with over 300,000.
The largest share of potential boomerang buyers (as a percentage of total housing units) can be found in former foreclosure hotbeds such as Las Vegas, Merced, Stockton, Cape Coral-Fort Meyers, and Modesto.
Of course, in order for a potential boomerang buyer to become an actual homeowner the conditions need to be just right, kind of like conditions here on Earth.
RealtyTrac notes that the “trifecta of market conditions” includes an area where a high percentage of homes were lost to foreclosure, where home prices are still within reach to median income earners, and where the population of Gen Xers and Baby Boomers has held steady or increased.
The company found 22 metros (with a population of at least 250,000) meeting these criteria. The top five are Las Vegas, Tampa, Orlando, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, and Charlotte.
Phoenix wasn’t on the list because it’s Gen X/Baby Boomer population fell by 2.64% from 2007 to 2013. Miami isn’t ideal either because its housing payment to income ratio is over 28%.
In any case, the toughest part will be convincing these individuals to buy again seeing that home prices are already back near peak levels.
Your mortgage payment may be among the largest payments you make every month. While certainly an important part of your budget, this payment is also critical to helping you build equity in your home because it attributes to mortgage principal reduction. Managing your mortgage payments can be challenging, but there are some incredible apps available for use with Android or iPhone smartphones that can simplify your mortgage management tasks.
This app is available for both iPhones and Android devices, and is designed to be compatible with all types of mortgages. It can calculate PMI for adjustable rate and variable rate mortgages, and it can help you to determine the true cost of a mortgage. Through the use of this intelligent app, you can track your account information in real-time, or you can manipulate the numbers to help you to make more thoughtful and intelligent decisions about your finances.
Loan Calculator Pro
This app is only currently available on iOS devices, but those with this operating system may want to download it today. It has some of the same capabilities as Mortgage Mentor, but it goes a step above and beyond by providing you with mortgage payment notification reminders. It also has a unique feature that allows you to set a final payoff date for your mortgage, and it will calculate how much money you need to pay per month toward your mortgage to accomplish this goal.
Bill Payment Log
The Bill Payment Log app is a unique program that can entirely replace the outdated manual entry checkbook balancing task. It is suitable for use with iOS, Android and even Windows. You can use it to monitor and track payments for all credit accounts, including mortgages. While it does not have the analytical tools associated with some of the other mortgage apps, those who are looking for an all-in-one app that facilitates bill payment tasks for all accounts, this may be a great option to consider.
Making your mortgage payments on time is important, but you also may need to know if you need to pay extra each month and what the effects of that will be. You may also be concerned about “what if” scenarios for your adjustable rate mortgage. There are numerous apps available on the market today that can help you to facilitate your efforts, and these are among the leading choices available.
Case-Shiller reported that home prices hit their lowest pace in two years. According to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for October, home prices fell in 10 cities, rose in eight cities and were unchanged in two cities.
In other news, pending home sales increased and weekly jobless claims rose. The details:
Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Lowest in Two Years
According to its 20-City Home Price Index, Case-Shiller said that home prices dropped by 0.10 percent to a reading of 4.50 percent year-over-year as compared to September’s reading of 4.80 percent year-over-year. Analysts expected home price growth to drop to 4.70 percent in October.
David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that 2014 could finish on a strong note with price growth accelerating in 2015. Home price growth hasn’t hit double digits since April, but there is encouraging news on the horizon.
More than half of states’ average home prices are set to surpass housing bubble peaks in 2015. Through October, home prices were approximately 15 percent below a 2006 peak. Higher inventories of available homes and lower mortgage rates are seen as stabilizing influences on housing markets, and could also encourage more buyers into the market.
Pending Home Sales Up, Mortgage Rates Mixed
The National Association of Realtors® reported that November pending home sales rose to a reading of 0.80 percent from October’s reading of -1.10 percent. The seasonally-adjusted index reading for November was 104.8.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist noted that steady economic growth and hiring contributed to home buyer confidence. Regional readings for pending home sales were +1.40 percent in the Northeast, +1.30 percent in the South and +0.40 percent in the South. Pending home sales declined by -0.40 percent in the Midwest.
Fixed mortgage rates rose last week. Freddie Mac reported that average rates for 30-year and 15-year mortgages rose to 3.87 percent and 3.15 percent respectively; the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged at 3.01 percent.
Discount points for all types of mortgages were unchanged at 0.60 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.
Jobless Claims Up
Weekly jobless claims rose to 298,000 new claims against expectations of 290,000 new claims and 281,000 new claims filed the previous week. This was the highest reading since Thanksgiving.
Analysts said that seasonal hiring fluctuations and the volatility of week-to-week claims cause weekly reports to be less reliable than the four-week rolling average of jobless claims, which fell by 250 claims to a reading of 290,750.
Continuing claims fell by 53,000 to a reading of 2.35 million in the week ending December 20. This reading was close to a 14 year low.
Overall, analysts viewed stronger labor markets and economic growth as positive signs for 2015.
Next week will resume a full schedule of economic events including construction spending, ADP employment, Non-Farm Payrolls and the national unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).