South Orange County Blog from Bob Phillips

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 28, 2016

Posted in Financial Reports by southorangecounty on March 28, 2016

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 28, 2016Increasing Home Prices Good For Sellers

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported lower sales of pre-owned homes in February. Would-be buyers were discouraged by rapidly rising home prices. Short supplies of available homes sidelined potential buyers as higher home prices and cash buyers squeeze out buyers who need mortgages to buy homes. Multiple offers resulting in bidding wars have also deterred buyers in high demand markets. According to NAR’s February report, sales of existing homes fell 7.10 percent to their lowest level since November.

NAR has predicted that rapidly rising home prices would eventually damage housing markets. While analysts weren’t certain whether February’s report indicated a temporary lull due to weather and anomalies related to new closing regulations and seasonal influences, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, “The main issue continues to be a supply and affordability problem. Finding the right property at an affordable price is burdening many potential buyers.”

During the housing bubble, buyers jumped into the market as speculators or to buy before home prices increased beyond their reach. NAR surveyed renters last week and found that the percentage of renters who believed that it’s currently a good time to buy a home decreased.

Respondents to Fannie Mae’s February Home Purchase Sentiment Index forecasted a 1.70 percent increase in home prices year-over-year. One year ago, respondents expected home prices to increase by 2.50 percent year-over-year. This may suggest that home prices are cooling. This can be expected as the number of buyers declines as home prices become increasingly unaffordable.

New Home Sales Up in February

New home rose in February according to the Commerce Department. Based on a revised reading of 502,000 new home sales in January, February’s reading was 2.00 percent higher than January’s reading, but was 6.10 percent lower than for February 2015.

Builders have held back on increasing construction due to concerns about ups and downs in the economic recovery. Short supplies of labor and available land have also kept home builders from meeting current demand.

Mortgage Rates Trend Lower

According to Freddie Mac, average mortgage rates fell across the board last week. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by two basis points to 3.71 percent; the rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell three basis points to 2.96 percent and the rate for a 5/1 adjustable  rate mortgage fell four basis points to 2.89 percent.

New jobless claims rose to 265,000 from the prior week’s reading of 259,000 new claims. Last week’s reading matched analyst expectations.

Whats Ahead This Week

This week’s scheduled economic news includes reports on inflation, pending home sales, Case-Shiller’s Home Price Index reports and government and private sector employment data. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims are also scheduled.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 14, 2016

Posted in Financial Reports by southorangecounty on March 14, 2016

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 14, 2016Last week’s economic news included Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. The City of Detroit also announced a program to help would-be buyers purchase homes that do not qualify for mortgage loans due to severe damage.

Fannie Mae: Home Buyer Sentiment Index Rises

Fannie Mae’s Home Buyer Sentiment Index (HBSI) gained 1.20 percent for an overall reading of 82.70 percent for February. The index reading is calculated using responses to several questions contained in Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey. HBSI components include consumer responses to questions about whether it’s a good or bad time to sell or buy a home, consumer expectations concerning whether home prices and mortgage rates will rise, whether respondents expected to keep or lose their jobs, and consumer outlook for their income to significantly increase year-over-year.

The HBSI is designed to assess consumer attitudes about housing markets and their decisions about buying a home.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Weekly Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates rose across the board last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose four basis points to 3.68 percent; the average rate for a 15-year mortgage rose two basis points to 2.96 percent and the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was eight basis points higher at 2.92 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims dropped to a five-month low last week with a reading of 259,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 275,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 277,000 new claims. New claims readings under 300,000 new claims indicate a healthy labor market; new claims readings have held below the 300,000 benchmark for more than a year. The lowest reading of 256,000 new jobless claims occurred in October 2015.

City of Detroit Addresses Problems with Ravaged Homes

The City of Detroit announced a program designed to facilitate the purchase and rehabilitation of vacant and damaged homes that do not meet appraisal requirements for traditional home loans. While many markets have recovered from the Great Recession, housing markets such as Detroit have languished due to the lack of financing options. The program offers mortgages to cover the home purchase and second mortgages up to $75,000 for repairs and renovation. Program administrators say they plan to issue 1000 loans over the next three years. This type of program may help struggling housing markets recover while providing homeownership opportunities to those who could not otherwise afford to buy a home.

What’s Ahead This Week

This week’s scheduled economic events include the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, federal reports on housing starts and building permits issued. The Federal Reserve will release its usual post-meeting statement after its Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will also hold a press conference.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 7, 2016

Posted in Financial Reports by southorangecounty on March 7, 2016

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 7, 2016Week in Review

Last week’s scheduled economic news included reports on pending home sales, construction spending and several jobs related readings including ADP Payrolls, the government’s Non-Farm Payrolls and the national unemployment rate.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise

Mortgage rates rose across the board according to Freddie Mac’s weekly report. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose two basis points to 3.64 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose by one basis point to 2.94 percent and the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rose five basis points to 2.84 percent. Discount points were consistent at 0.50 percent for all three types of home loans.

Weekly jobless claims also rose to 278,000 new claims as compared to expectations of 270,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of $272,000 new jobless claims. While an increase in new unemployment claims may seem discouraging, new claims for unemployment remain near pre-recession lows.

The four-week rolling average of new jobless claims dropped by 1750 claims to 270,250 and reached its lowest reading in three months. Analysts view the four-week reading as more reliable than week-to-week readings that can be volatile.

Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending

In other news, pending home sales fell by 2.50 percent as compared to December’s reading. Analysts expected an increase in pending sales of 0.50 percent; December’s reading was 0.10 percent higher than for November. Pending home sales represent sales contracts that have not yet closed and are considered an indicator of future closings and mortgage activity.

Home sales have been impacted in recent months by a shortage of available homes; this creates a backlog of would-be buyers who can’t find homes they want to buy and also causes rapidly escalating home prices in desirable areas. Bidding wars and cash sales can sideline buyers who can’t pay cash or are whose offers are outbid.

Analysts say that new home construction is a key component of easing the housing shortage. Construction spending increased by 1.50 percent in January, but month-to-month spending for residential projects was flat in January. Spending for residential projects was 7.60 percent higher year-over-year.

Labor Reports Reflect Stronger Economy

Federal and private sector reports on jobs indicate that job growth continues. The Department of Commerce reported that Non-Farm Payrolls grew by 242,000 jobs in February, which was higher than expectations of 195,000 new jobs and January’s reading of 172,000 new jobs. According to ADP, which tracks private sector payrolls, 214,000 new jobs were created in February as compared to expectations of 185,000 new jobs and January’s reading of 193,000 new jobs.

Improving jobs markets are a positive indicator for housing markets as stable employment is important to home buyers’ ability to qualify for mortgages. The National Unemployment Rate remained stable in February with a reading of 4.90 percent; the expected reading and prior month’s reading were also 4.90 percent.

Whats Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic reports include the NFIB Small Business Index and February’s Federal Budget along with regularly scheduled weekly reports on mortgage rates and new unemployment claims.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 22, 2016

Posted in Financial Reports by southorangecounty on February 22, 2016

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 22, 2016Last week’s economic news included the NAHB Housing Market Index, Commerce Department releases on housing starts and building permits and minutes of the most recent meeting of the Fed’s FOMC meeting.

Home Builder Confidence Falls in February

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), home builders had less confidence in market conditions for newly built homes. The reading for February was three points lower at 58 than the upwardly adjusted reading for January. Analysts had expected a reading of 59; any reading over 50 indicates that more builders are confident about conditions than those who are not.

Builder confidence was mixed for the three components used to calculate the NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index reading. Confidence in current market conditions was lower by three points to 65, but builder confidence in future market conditions rose one point to 65. The reading for buyer foot traffic in new housing developments hasn’t topped the benchmark of 50 since the peak of the housing bubble; in February, the reading for buyer foot traffic dropped five points to 39.

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said that builder confidence is likely to improve in 2016 due to low mortgage rates, stable job markets and pent-up demand for homes. Mr. Crowe also said that shortages of available land and labor were concerns for builders.

Housing Starts,Building Permits Issued Lower

Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits issued also showed lower readings for January than for December. Housing starts reached 1.099 million starts in January as compared to an expected reading of 1.165 million starts and December’s reading of 1.145 million starts.  Winter weather likely contributed to fewer housing starts.

Fewer building permits were issued in January than in December. January’s reading was 1.202 million permits issued as compared to December’s reading of 1.143 million building permits issued. Building permits issued for single family homes dropped by 1.60 percent to 731,000 permits issued. While lower month-to-month readings for current conditions may seem discouraging, the pace of single-family home building grew steadily during 2015 and is expected to do likewise in 2016.

FOMC Minutes: Policy Makers Eye Economic Developments

Minutes of January’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicate that members will closely monitor developing economic conditions as part of any future decision to raise the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0.250 to 0.500 percent. The Fed raised this rate in December, but did not increase the federal funds rate at its January meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen emphasized that decisions to raise the federal funds rate were not on a pre-determined course and that developing economic trends would continue to inform FOMC decisions.

Mortgage Rates and Weekly Jobless Claims

Average rates for fixed rate mortgages were unchanged last week according to Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.65 percent and the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 2.95 percent with Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for both types of fixed rate mortgages. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rose by two basis points to 2.85 percent with average discount points at 0.40 percent.

Analysts have consistently cited stronger labor markets as a factor driving U.S. housing markets. New weekly jobless claims dropped last week and added evidence of expanding job markets. 262,000 new jobless claims were filed last week; the reading was lower than expectations of 275,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 269,000 new jobless claims. Stable job markets are important to would-be home buyers; as labor conditions improve more buyers are likely to enter the housing market.

Whats Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes reports on sales of new and pre-owned homes and the Case-Shiller 10 and 20 City Home Price Indices. Reports on consumer sentiment and inflation will also be released.

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Sales volume in priciest O.C. ZIP codes up 16 percent in September

From Jonathan Lansner, O.C. Register Staff Columnist, 10/22/2015

Illuminated House With Pond In Foreground

Orange County housing’s upper crust finished the summer in style.

In September, home sales in the county’s 27 priciest ZIP codes – neighborhoods where the median sales price run from $722,500 to $3.65 million – were up 16.3 percent compared to a year ago, according to CoreLogic data.

Countywide, 3,282 Orange County residences sold, up 15 percent from a year ago. Orange County’s median selling price for all residences was $615,000 in the period, up 5.3 percent compared to a year ago.

In the nine Orange County ZIP codes with median selling prices above $1 million, sales totaled 222 homes, up 20 percent compared to a year ago. The most expensive ZIP codes were Newport Coast 92657 and Newport Beach 92661 at $3.65 million.

Other noteworthy trends in CoreLogic’s September report:

• Gains were not universal. Prices were up in 55 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year. Sales volume rose in 63 of the 83 ZIPs.

• The latest countywide median price is 4.7 percent below the all-time high monthly price of $645,000 set in June 2007.

• Median selling price for resales of single family homes was $679,750 – up 4.6 percent from a year ago and 7.4 percent below the all-time high monthly price of $734,000 set in June 2007.

• Resale condos’ median selling price was $430,000 – up 7.9 percent from a year ago, yet 8.5 percent below the all-time high monthly price of $470,000 set in March 2007.

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What Would Americans Do With an Extra Couple Hundred Bucks?

An article from The Atlantic, by Gillian B. White, dated  10/8/2015

That’s not a hypothetical question. Falling gas prices mean the average household will be about $700 richer this year.

shopping cartsFor most Americans, trying to cut back on bills involves a mix of discipline and sacrifice: Moving into a smaller place, searching for sales at the grocery store, or forgoing air conditioning on hot days, for examples. But drivers around the country have been getting a reprieve without any effort thanks to falling gas prices. So what are they doing with the unanticipated bonus in their bank accounts? Not saving it, a new report from J.P. Morgan finds.

The price of gas peaked at about $3.70 a gallon in 2014. At present, that price has declined by about $1.50. While those single-gallon prices might seem insignificant, they add up. Take the example of a Toyota Camry, one of the nation’s top-selling cars with a fuel tank that holds around 17 gallons: Filling a totally empty tank at the peak would cost over $60. Now it would cost a much more reasonable $37. And for those who rely on their car as the main method of transportation, that’s a big deal. It’s been estimated that over the course of 2015, Americans will save on average $700 thanks to the dip in gas prices. That’s more than government stimulus checks in recent years, which paid out between $300 and $600.

And they’re spending it—most of it, at least. According to the J.P. Morgan Institute, Americans are spending about 80 cents for every dollar they’ve saved. They’re going out to restaurants—which accounted for nearly 20 percent of gas savings—shopping for clothes, and buying groceries, electronics, and appliances.

These findings imply that Americans are feeling surprisingly upbeat about the economy. Were they more pessimistic, economists would expect them to be saving a greater portion of the money for the expected tough times ahead, or using the money strictly for essentials, like housing and bills. Other recent reports on the impact of lowered gas prices have painted a less optimistic picture. The Council of Economic Advisors puts the consumption bump at closer to 45 percent of gas savings, and a Gallup poll found that though nearly 60 percent of respondents said they’re feeling the positive effects of lower prices, only about one-quarter said that that they were spending the extra money. The bulk of respondents told Gallup that the money was going toward bills or savings.

So what explains the difference? The study’s authors, Diana Farrell and Fiona Greig note that these discrepancies could be related to sample size or more limited data in those surveys. In their study, J.P. Morgan analyzes the spending of 25 million clients via transactions on debit and credit cards between October 2012 and June 2015. While that certainly is a robust sample, it too has its own limitations and biases. For instance the bank’s data won’t capture transactions made with cash or on other credit or debit cards, which could be money that families are using for essentials rather than a night out or a new television. The data could also be skewed to reflect the habits and demographics of the bank’s clientele. For instance, the survey finds that gas bills account for only 2.9 percent of individual’s incomes in 2014 while the Consumer Expenditure Survey reports that it accounts for 3.7 percent, which could reflect a difference between where these sample groups live, their access to public transportation, or their income.

Nonetheless, some of the broad trends are intriguing. The data show that the gas-price infusion is obviously not spread equally among all Americans. It’s more heavily concentrated among those who live in the South and Midwest where people drive more, over greater distances, and have decreased access to and use of public transportation. The savings are also more meaningful for low-income households—who saw their monthly disposable income climb by more than 1 percent for those pulling in less than $30,000 a year—and young people.

Though the money spent on gas makes up a nominal amount of consumption in the grand scheme, the impact of gas prices on American families can be a telling way to assess how confident people are feeling about spending. It could also help predict spending trends should prices hold steady, or increase in the future. That could help inform policy decisions on things like gas taxes. For an economy that’s been puttering along with little wage growth, increasing costs of living, and little disposable income—spending is a good thing. It puts more money into businesses, which then creates more jobs and helps spur further economic growth. And there hasn’t been quite enough of that since 2008.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 14, 2015

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week September 14 2015A short week after the Labor Day Holiday provided a slack schedule for economic news. Bloomberg reported that residential investment for the second quarter of 2015 represented 3.34 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. Compared to the long-term average reading of 4.56 percent, analysts said that the Q2 15 reading suggested pent-up demand in the housing market that could help propel the economy through any setbacks that could occur when the Fed raises rates.

Pent-Up Housing Demand a Plus when Fed Raises Rates

Job openings rose in July to 5.75 million as compared to June’s reading of 5.32 million. This is a positive indicator for the economy and for the housing sector, as consumer confidence in terms of buying a home typically relies on stable employment and a strong labor sector.

While economic indicators are looking good for housing construction, analysts note that a shortage of construction workers could affect construction of new residential units. Analysts said that children born during the 1980’s will lead the next wave of first-time home buyers, with millennials following. This trend could last for the next 10 to 15 years and is expected to bolster housing markets.

More lenient mortgage lending requirements and rising confidence among home builders were also cited as positive indicators for housing.

Mortgage Rates Mixed

Freddie Mac reported that average fixed mortgage rates rose by one basis point to 3.90 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 3.10 percent for 15-year mortgages. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage fell by two basis points to 2.91 percent. Average discount points for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage were unchanged at 0.60 percent and rose to 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and to 0.50 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Job Openings Rise as Weekly Jobless Claims Fall

July job openings rose to 5.75 million from June’s reading of 5.32 million; this was the highest number of available jobs since records have been kept. Analysts said that the high number of job openings clearly indicate that the labor force is not able to supply the workers needed by employers. Jobs available range from professional to service related work; this suggests a universal trend rather than hiring challenges within specific job areas.

Hiring activity fell in July to 4.98 million from June’s reading of 5.18 million. July separations also fell, which suggests that employers are having problems finding skilled workers and are holding on to experienced workers.

Weekly jobless claims fell to 275,000 from the prior week’s reading of 281,000 new jobless claims.

What’s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic reports include Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index and Core CSI along with the NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee will issue its customary statement on Wednesday, followed by highly-anticipated press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

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GIFTS, WE ALL LIKE TO RECEIVE GIFTS

A longtime friend of mine, Duane Gomer, is a local expert/provider of real estate education.

Below is a recent post of his.

Tax-Saving-Tips-252“There is a lot of misunderstanding about giving someone gifts and the tax consequences. It is not a simple matter and before gifting large sums (not just cash but anything of value) get professional advice. You will be glad you did. Sleeping   at night becomes more difficult during an IRS Tax Audit.

Most people know that you can gift up to a certain amount to someone with no tax problems. Currently, the amount is $14,000 per year and your spouse could also contribute $14,000 per year so in our case with four children we could gift each one $28,000 or a total of $112,000, and we could throw in five grandchildren for another $140,000. That is  $252,000 per year, and you can give the same $14,000 to relatives, parents, friends, etc. with no tax. Wouldn’t take too long to give away  all we have.

You can add even more by making direct tuition payments for students or direct payments of a person’s medical expense. You can even use a 529 plan to give more. Do not do any of these gifting ideas without professional advice to make sure your tracking meets IRS rules.

What if we want to give one child the $252,000? We can do whatever we want, it is our money, but is there any tax to pay that year if this is the first gift that we have ever given. No, No, No. This year the estate tax exemption is $5.43M. You can gift up to that amount in any year without tax to pay, BUT any amount over $14,000 for that year must be reported, and the amount is deducted from the $5.43M for later.

With everyone living to advanced ages, heirs are getting their money late in life and in large amounts. Some money spread to them through the years would be more valuable, and the estate tax impact would not be severe. To give is better than to receive. I am not positive of that, but you should consider this topic before too long. Time is fleeting.” ( End of Duane’s post. Thanks, Duane!)

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 10, 2015

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week August 10 2015This week’s scheduled economic news includes reports on construction spending, a survey of senior loan officers, and reports on labor markets including ADP private sector jobs, the federal government’s reports on non-farm payrolls, core inflation and the national unemployment rate.

Construction Spending Slows, Loan Officers Survey Suggests Growing Confidence

Construction spending fell in June after the May reading was revised upward to 1.89 percent from the original reading of 0.90 percent. Spending for residential construction rose by 0.40 percent, while non-residential construction spending remained flat. The seasonally-adjusted annual outlay for construction was $1.06 billion in June.

Analysts continue to note a trend toward construction of smaller residential units including condominiums and apartments, with an emphasis on rental properties. This supports reports that would-be homebuyers are taking a wait-and-see stance to see how factors including rising home prices, fluctuating mortgage rates and labor market conditions perform.

According to a survey of senior loan officers conducted by the Federal Reserve, mortgage lenders reported that mortgage applications increased during the second quarter and indicating that financial constraints on consumers may be easing. According to the survey of 71 domestic banks and 23 foreign-owned banks, 44 percent of respondents reported moderate increases in loan applications, while only 5 percent of survey participants reported fewer loan applications.

Some banks surveyed reported easing mortgage approval standards, but fewer lenders eased standards than in the first quarter. Further supporting growing confidence among lenders, the Fed survey also reported that large banks were easing consumer credit standards for auto loans and credit cards.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates fell across the board last week with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage lower by seven basis points to 3.91 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell by four basis points to 3.13 percent, and the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged at 2.95 percent. Discount points for all loan types were unchanged at 0.60 percent for 30 and 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Weekly jobless claims rose from the prior week’s reading of 268,000 new claims to 270,000 new claims, which matched analysts’ expectations. In other labor-related news, the government reported a national unemployment rate of 5.30 percent in July; this was unchanged from June’s reading.

The ADP employment report for July showed fewer jobs were available in the private sector. June’s reading showed that private sector jobs grew by 229,000 jobs; July’s reading fell to 185,000 private sector jobs. According to July’s Non-farm Payrolls report, 215,000 new jobs were added in July as compared to expectations of 220,000 jobs added and June’s reading of 231,000 new jobs added.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is closely monitoring job growth and inflation rates as it contemplates raising the target federal funds rate. Core inflation grew by 0.10 percent in June; which was consistent with May’s reading and expectations. The FOMC recently cited the committee’s concerns about labor markets and lagging inflation. The Fed has set an annual growth rate of 1.65 percent for inflation for the medium term; this benchmark is part of what the Fed will consider in any decision to raise rates.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment in addition to usual weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

 

 

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Orange County Housing Report: Here We Grow Again!

Part of the normal summer housing cycle, the active inventory continues to grow without pause.

Increase of inventoryA Growing Inventory: the active inventory has grown by 42% since the beginning of the year.

Quietly, one house at a time, the active inventory has been growing. In order for the inventory to rise, homes have to come on the market faster than they are coming off. Homes come off the market for one of two reasons: either they are placed into escrow or a seller opts to pull their home off of the market. So, in order for the inventory to blossom from 5,000 homes at the beginning of 2015 to 7,116 homes today, homes have to sit on the market without success.

But how can that occur when we have heard so much about the extremely hot market this year? Quite simply, too many overzealous homeowners inaccurately priced their homes outside of reality and sat on the market until they came to their senses. It’s no wonder that 10% of the housing inventory in Orange County reduces their asking price each and every week.

Don’t get me wrong; the market is a lot stronger this year compared to last year. There were a similar number of homes placed on the market so far this year compared to last year, but the active inventory last year was 6% higher. The inventory was higher because demand was not as strong during the Spring Market. When fewer homes are placed into escrow, the inventory rises.

In spite of the robust market, the inventory is still rising. A hotter market is not a free pass to price a home wherever a seller wishes. Those sellers realize the error in their ways after sitting on the market without reviewing a single offer. Now that summer is almost over, the Orange County housing market is beginning its annual transition into the Autumn Market. Have you seen more Open House directional arrows at busy cross streets? That’s a definitive sign that there are fewer buyers in the marketplace, that homes are not selling as quickly, and that too many homes are not priced accurately.

April 9th of this year was the absolute peak of the spring selling season.  The expected market time was at 1.81 months, or 54 days. The market was a very hot seller’s market and prices were rising, homes were flying off of the market, and offers were coming in above the listing price. Since then, the inventory has grown by 27%, 1,792 homes, and demand has dropped by 13%, or 409 pending sales. When supply rises and demand drops in housing, the expected market time that it would take for the average home to be placed into escrow rises, the higher the expected market time, the slower the overall market. It has climbed to 2.64 months, or 79 days, moving from a deep seller’s market to a slight seller’s market.

The expected market time is marching its way to three months. When it is between three and four months, it is a balanced market, one that does not favor a buyer or seller. At its current level, sellers are able to call the shots, but appreciation has slowed to a crawl. Without appreciation, proper pricing is vital in order to succeed. At this point, sellers wishing to stretch the price will simply sit on the market until they finally wake up to the reality that they are overpriced and will attract no offers.

Success today can be achieved a lot swifter with the sound strategy of pricing a home as close to its Fair Market Value. This cannot be determined by any online tool or valuation calculator, as they can be off by 20%, or even more. Instead, it is best to utilize the expertise of a seasoned REALTOR®, an expert who is able to take into consideration location, condition, upgrades and amenities, carefully comparing a home to the most recent pending and closed sales activity to determine the price.

The bottom line: price is the determining factor in successfully selling and stretching the price is a strategy that will not work for the remainder of 2015.

Active InventoryThe inventory increased by 7% in the last month.

The active inventory increased by 469 homes in the past month and now totals 7,116. October of 2014 was the last time the inventory was above the 7,000 home mark. Last year at this time the inventory totaled 8,057 homes, 941 more than today, with an expected market time of 3.16 months, or 95 days. That’s 16 additional days compared to today.

From here we can expect the listing inventory to continue to grow through the end of the summer before turning lower in September as fewer homes come on the market and sellers start to throw in the towel with both the Spring and Summer Markets in the rearview mirror.

DemandDemand decreased by 9% in the past month.

Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 271 homes in the past month and now totals 2,698 homes, its lowest level since February. Demand will remain at these levels for the remainder of summer before it downshifts again after the kids go back to school.

Last year at this time there were 149 fewer pending sales, totaling 2,549. The year over year difference has diminished substantially. On July 2nd there were 492 more pending sales compared to 2014, 20% more. The current difference is the smallest since February, just 5%. 

Distressed Breakdown: The distressed inventory increased by 12 home in the past couple of weeks.

The distressed inventory, foreclosures and short sales combined, increased by 12 homes in the past two weeks, but for the month it is actually down by nine. Year over year, there are 31% fewer distressed homes today. With a sharp turnaround in prices in the past few years the number of distressed homes has fallen appreciably. Only a few percent of all mortgaged homes are upside down. During the Great Recession, the number was as high as 25% of all mortgage homes. The distressed market has been reduced to an asterisk of the current Orange County housing scene.

In the past two weeks, the foreclosure inventory increased by 10 homes and now totals 68. Less than 1% of the inventory is a foreclosure. The expected market time for foreclosures is 51 days. The short sale inventory increased by 1 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 139. The expected market time is 48 days. Short sales represent just 2% of the total active inventory. ( End of Report.)

This report is from my longtime friend, Steven Thomas, Orange County’s own real estate market guru, and the above is his latest “Orange County Housing Report” which can be found at ReportsOnHousing.com

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