South Orange County Blog from Bob Phillips

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 2, 2014

Whats-Ahead-Mortgage-Rates-6Last week’s economic news was fairly quiet due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday and no scheduled news released on Wednesday.

Home Prices Post Modest Gains, But Growth Rate of Home Prices Slows

Tuesday’s release of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for March showed that home prices are edging up, but at a slower pace than last year. Home prices increased by 12.40 percent year-over-year as compared to February’s reading of 12.90 percent year-over-year.

Analysts expected prices to fall as construction picks up and more homes are listed for sale. Lower demand due to strict mortgage lending standards and high home prices continued to keep many moderate-income and first-time home buyers on the sidelines.

FHFA Reports Home Prices Increased By Over 6 Percent

FHFA, the agency that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also released its home price index for properties connected with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac owned or guaranteed loans. As of March, FHFA reported that home prices increased by 6.50 percent year-over-year as compared to February’s year-over-year reading of 6.90 percent.

Consumer confidence rose by 1.30 percent for May with a reading of 83.0, which matched expectations.

Last Thursday’s news included the weekly Jobless Claims report, which showed 22,000 fewer jobless claims than expected with a reading of 300,000 new jobless claims reported. Thursday’s reading was also lower than the prior reporting period’s reading of 327,000 new jobless claims filed.

The four-week rolling average of jobless claims also showed improvement with 11,250 fewer claims filed and an average reading of 311,500 new weekly jobless claims filed. This was the lowest number of jobless claims filed since August 2007. Analysts look to the four-week rolling average as more accurate than the weekly readings, which can be volatile.

U.S. jobs have increased by 200,000 jobs per month over the last three months reported.

Pending Home Sales Up for Second Consecutive Month

Pending home sales in April rose by 0.40 percent from the March reading of 97.4 to 97.8. The April reading was the highest for pending home sales since November. Pending home sales provide an estimate of future home sales.

Lower mortgage rates likely supported expanded home sales. Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.12 percent, a drop of two basis points from last week. The rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell by four basis points to 3.21 percent.

The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged at 2.96 percent. Discount points were unchanged at 0.60 for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and 0.50 percent for a 15 year mortgage. Discount points dropped from 0.40 to 0.30 percent for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage.

What’s Ahead

In addition to construction spending for April, this week’s economic news includes several reports that can provide insight about employment and consumer spending.

News events include Motor Vehicle Sales for May, The Fed’s Beige Book report, and Thursday’s usual release of Freddie Mac’s average mortgage rates and weekly Jobless Claims. Non-farm Payrolls and the national unemployment rate for May are also scheduled for release

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 13, 2014

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 13, 2014The first post-holiday week of 2014 brought mixed economic and housing-related news. CoreLogic reported via its Housing Market Index that November home prices grew by 11.80 percent year-over-year.

This was just shy of October’s year-over-year reading of 11.90 percent. As with Case-Shiller’s recently reported Home Price Indices, a slower rate of home price growth suggested to analysts that the housing market is cooling down.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes from its December meeting. The minutes reiterated the Committee’s decision to begin tapering its asset purchases this month.

The Fed announced that it would reduce its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion to $75 billion. As always, the Fed indicated that it would continue monitoring economic data for determining future actions concerning monetary policy.

Mortgage Rates Mixed

Freddie Mac’s Primary Market Survey reported mixed results for average mortgage rates last week. The rate for a 30-yer fixed rate mortgage dropped to 4.51 percent from 4.53 percent with discount points lower at 0.70 percent; the rate for a15-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.56; this was one basis point higher than for last week.

Discount fell from 0.70 to 0.60 percent. The rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage jumped by 10 basis points to 3.15 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.50 percent.

Employment, Unemployment Data Mixed

The week’s jobs-related readings provided mixed readings for the labor sector. The ADP Employment report for December showed 238,000 private sector jobs added and matched expectations of 215,000 new private sector jobs. December’s reading also exceeded November’s reading of 229,000 jobs added.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Non-Farm Payrolls report for December; it reported 74,000 jobs added in December against expectations of 193,000 new jobs and November’s reading of 241,000 jobs added.

The sharp drop in new jobs during December was partially blamed on poor weather, but analysts also said that it could be a sign of further ups and downs in the U.S. economy.

In a statement given in connection with the December Non-Farm Payrolls report, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard, a member of the FOMC, said that he did not expect the Fed to stop tapering its asset purchases due to December’s sharp drop in new jobs.

The national unemployment rate improved to a reading of 6.70 percent. This was the lowest reading in five years and only two-tenths of a percent above the FOMC’s targeted unemployment rate of 6.50 percent. 347,000 workers left the workforce, which helps to explain the discrepancy between the lower number of new jobs and the lower unemployment rate.

This Week

This week’s scheduled economic news includes retail sales and retail sales except autos, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, Weekly Jobless Claims, Freddie Mac’s PMMS. The NAHB Home Builders HMI and the Housing Starts report will also be released. Friday’s release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rounds out the week.

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